The model leans to AC Milan at 41%. Below is the full model breakdown — win probabilities, expected goals, recent form and the most likely scorelines.
Win probability
41%AC Milan
29%Draw
30%Inter
We give AC Milan the better chance here at 41%, with the other results trailing behind. These are the odds we settle on after playing the fixture out many times over, so read them as how often each result tends to happen rather than a firm call on the day.
Expected goals is our read on the quality of chances each side should create, not just the final score. We make it 1.86 for AC Milan against 1.57 for Inter, so we see AC Milan carrying the bigger threat across the ninety minutes. The wider that gap, the more comfortably we expect one side to shape the game.
Here is how both teams have fared across their last five matches: green marks a win, amber a draw and red a loss. We award three points for a win and one for a draw, and the tally on the right shows who arrives in sharper shape — on these runs Inter hold the edge.
Most likely scorelines
INT 0
INT 1
INT 2
INT 3
AC 0
0-0
0-1
0-2
0-3
AC 1
1-0
1-1
1-2
1-3
AC 2
2-0
2-1
2-2
2-3
AC 3
3-0
3-1
3-2
3-3
We play the match out thousands of times using our expected goals and count how often each scoreline lands. The brighter a square, the more often we see that result — our single most likely outcome here is 1-1. It's worth remembering that no one scoreline is ever truly likely on its own, since football tends to spread itself across many possible endings.
The preview
The Milan derby needs no introduction, and this latest meeting between AC Milan and Inter carries its usual weight as one of Italian football's biggest fixtures. Both sides arrive in good shape, making this a tightly poised contest on paper.
Scorina's model gives AC Milan a slight edge, with a 41% win probability compared to 30% for Inter and 29% for a draw. The expected goals figures back this up, with Milan projected at 1.86 against Inter's 1.57, pointing to a close but narrowly Milan-favoured match. Milan's recent form reads W W D W D, giving them a two-game winning streak heading into this one. Inter have also been strong, winning four of their last five, though a loss in that run shows some inconsistency.
With the numbers so close, the model's confidence is low, and a 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline. Still, Milan's home advantage and current momentum edge them as narrow favourites in a finely balanced derby.
Predictions are model estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
