The preview
Genoa host Napoli in a fixture that pits home advantage against clear quality on paper. Napoli arrive as strong favourites, and the numbers back that up: Scorina's model gives them a 62% chance of victory, against 22% for a draw and just 16% for a Genoa win. The expected goals figures tell a similar story, with Napoli projected at 1.96 to Genoa's 0.89, pointing to a comfortable edge for the visitors in front of goal.
With no recent form data available for either side, the model leans heavily on quality difference rather than momentum. The most likely scoreline, 0-1, suggests a tight but controlled Napoli win rather than a landslide. Genoa's home surroundings may offer some resistance, but the underlying numbers suggest it will not be enough to stop Napoli's superior attacking threat. On balance, a narrow Napoli victory looks the most sensible conclusion, matching the model's overall prediction with medium confidence.