BundesligaSaturday, 7 November 2026, Leipzig Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg: AI Prediction & Preview
Scorina AI · 6 November 2026
The model leans to RB Leipzig at 67%. Below is the full model breakdown — win probabilities, expected goals, recent form and the most likely scorelines.
Win probability
67%RB Leipzig
17%Draw
16%FC Augsburg
We give RB Leipzig the better chance here at 67%, with the other results trailing behind. These are the odds we settle on after playing the fixture out many times over, so read them as how often each result tends to happen rather than a firm call on the day.
Expected goals
RB Leipzig2.95
FC Augsburg1.43
Expected goals is our read on the quality of chances each side should create, not just the final score. We make it 2.95 for RB Leipzig against 1.43 for FC Augsburg, so we see RB Leipzig carrying the bigger threat across the ninety minutes. The wider that gap, the more comfortably we expect one side to shape the game.
Here is how both teams have fared across their last five matches: green marks a win, amber a draw and red a loss. We award three points for a win and one for a draw, and the tally on the right shows who arrives in sharper shape — on these runs RB Leipzig hold the edge.
Most likely scorelines
FC 0
FC 1
FC 2
FC 3
RB 0
0-0
0-1
0-2
0-3
RB 1
1-0
1-1
1-2
1-3
RB 2
2-0
2-1
2-2
2-3
RB 3
3-0
3-1
3-2
3-3
We play the match out thousands of times using our expected goals and count how often each scoreline lands. The brighter a square, the more often we see that result — our single most likely outcome here is 2-1. It's worth remembering that no one scoreline is ever truly likely on its own, since football tends to spread itself across many possible endings.
The preview
RB Leipzig host Augsburg in a Bundesliga fixture where the home side go in as clear favourites. The model gives Leipzig a 67% chance of victory, well ahead of Augsburg's 16%, with a draw priced at 17%. The expected goals figures back this up, with Leipzig projected to score 2.95 compared to Augsburg's 1.43, pointing to a comfortable home win.
Recent form supports this view. Leipzig's last five results show two wins and three losses, a mixed record but one that includes enough quality to edge this contest. Augsburg, by contrast, have managed just two wins in their last eight games, averaging under one point per match, a sign of real struggle. With Augsburg's away form clearly poor and Leipzig carrying greater attacking threat, the model's high-confidence prediction of a 2-1 scoreline looks reasonable. Expect Leipzig to control much of the match and take the points.
Predictions are model estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice.
